To develop a method for predicting hospital admissions for patients with decompensated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease treated in an emergency department.
A 4-year survey including training and validation periods was conducted. Stepwise logistic regression was used to develop a multivariate model using information from the patient's previous visits and results of baseline pulmonary function tests.
Measurements and Main Results.—
During the first 2 years, there were 693 visits to the emergency department for decompensated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The patient was admitted to the hospital on 210 occasions (30.3%). Logistic regression showed that the probability of admission was related to the following: the admission and relapse rates for previous visits, the proportion of previous discharges from the emergency department in which "conservative therapy" was given, the highest baseline postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second within 3 years of entry, and the highest baseline prebronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second-vital capacity ratio. A relapse was defined as an unscheduled return to the emergency department within 48 hours. "Conservative therapy" was any treatment regimen that did not include parenteral medications. During the next 2 years, the model was validated with patients not previously treated at this medical center. Seventy-six (28.3%) of 269 episodes resulted in hospital admission. The logistic model was used to categorize each visit during the validation phase. "Highrisk" visits had calculated probabilities of admission greater than.208, while "low-risk" visits had values that were less. The admission rate for 98 low-risk visits (8.2%) was much lower than the rate for 171 high-risk visits (39.8%).
A multivariate model can be used to identify patients with decompensated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who are unlikely to need hospitalization. This model could be used to select episodes of decompensated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease for treatment at home.(Arch Intern Med. 1992;152:82-86)
Thank you for submitting a comment on this article. It will be reviewed by JAMA Internal Medicine editors. You will be notified when your comment has been published. Comments should not exceed 500 words of text and 10 references.
Do not submit personal medical questions or information that could identify a specific patient, questions about a particular case, or general inquiries to an author. Only content that has not been published, posted, or submitted elsewhere should be submitted. By submitting this Comment, you and any coauthors transfer copyright to the journal if your Comment is posted.
* = Required Field
Disclosure of Any Conflicts of Interest*
Indicate all relevant conflicts of interest of each author below, including all relevant financial interests, activities, and relationships within the past 3 years including, but not limited to, employment, affiliation, grants or funding, consultancies, honoraria or payment, speakers’ bureaus, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, royalties, donation of medical equipment, or patents planned, pending, or issued. If all authors have none, check "No potential conflicts or relevant financial interests" in the box below. Please also indicate any funding received in support of this work. The information will be posted with your response.
Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.
Download citation file:
Web of Science® Times Cited: 19
Customize your page view by dragging & repositioning the boxes below.
More Listings atJAMACareerCenter.com >
Enter your username and email address. We'll send you a link to reset your password.
Enter your username and email address. We'll send instructions on how to reset your password to the email address we have on record.
Athens and Shibboleth are access management services that provide single sign-on to protected resources. They replace the multiple user names and passwords necessary to access subscription-based content with a single user name and password that can be entered once per session. It operates independently of a user's location or IP address. If your institution uses Athens or Shibboleth authentication, please contact your site administrator to receive your user name and password.