Editorial |

The Canary in the Coal Mine of Coronary Artery Disease

S. Jay Olshansky, PhD; Victoria Persky, MD
Arch Intern Med. 2008;168(3):261. doi:10.1001/archinternmed.2007.58.
Text Size: A A A
Published online


Peering into the future of the health and longevity of a population has been a subject of interest for centuries for actuaries and demographers who follow and forecast trends in these statistics. The method most often used to make such forecasts is to examine recent trends in observed health characteristics and mortality data in a selected population and then perform a linear extrapolation of past trends into the future under the premise that the future will be like the past. The predictive power of this method is limited when health and mortality conditions are in a state of flux, which is most often the case, but sometimes this is the only way to get a sense of what the future holds. However, every once in a while a novel source of data surfaces that makes it possible to peer into the future in a fundamentally different and far more revealing way. That is the case with the study by Nemetz et al1 in this issue of the Archives.

Sign In to Access Full Content

Don't have Access?

Register and get free email Table of Contents alerts, saved searches, PowerPoint downloads, CME quizzes, and more

Subscribe for full-text access to content from 1998 forward and a host of useful features

Activate your current subscription (AMA members and current subscribers)

Purchase Online Access to this article for 24 hours

First Page Preview

View Large
First page PDF preview





Meets CME requirements for:
Browse CME for all U.S. States
Accreditation Information
The American Medical Association is accredited by the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education to provide continuing medical education for physicians. The AMA designates this journal-based CME activity for a maximum of 1 AMA PRA Category 1 CreditTM per course. Physicians should claim only the credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity. Physicians who complete the CME course and score at least 80% correct on the quiz are eligible for AMA PRA Category 1 CreditTM.
Note: You must get at least of the answers correct to pass this quiz.
You have not filled in all the answers to complete this quiz
The following questions were not answered:
Sorry, you have unsuccessfully completed this CME quiz with a score of
The following questions were not answered correctly:
Commitment to Change (optional):
Indicate what change(s) you will implement in your practice, if any, based on this CME course.
Your quiz results:
The filled radio buttons indicate your responses. The preferred responses are highlighted
For CME Course: A Proposed Model for Initial Assessment and Management of Acute Heart Failure Syndromes
Indicate what changes(s) you will implement in your practice, if any, based on this CME course.
Citing articles are presented as examples only. In non-demo SCM6 implementation, integration with CrossRef’s "Cited By" API will populate this tab (http://www.crossref.org/citedby.html).
Submit a Comment


Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Web of Science® Times Cited: 4

Sign In to Access Full Content

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging & repositioning the boxes below.

See Also...
Articles Related By Topic
Related Topics