The APACHE II score is often not available, so we used the derivation set post hoc to rerun the regression analyses without APACHE II scores to determine whether other models would discriminate comparably with the original models. The model for poor outcome 1 had a C statistic of 0.79 and contained the variables SRH (odds ratio [OR], 5.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.86-14.34), esophageal varices (OR, 4.39; 95% CI, 1.47-13.10), and 2 or more comorbid conditions (OR, 3.15; 95% CI, 1.09-8.52). When this model was used as a risk index with 1 point for each variable, the risk of poor outcome 1 in the low-risk group (score of 0) was 1.2%, in the intermediate-risk group (score of 1) was 5.3%, and in the high-risk group (score ≥2) was 24%. The model for poor outcome 2 had a C statistic of 0.76 and contained the following 4 variables: unstable comorbidity on admission (OR, 5.90; 95% CI, 2.55-13.68), serum creatinine level of 1.5 mg/dL or greater (≥133 μmol/L) (OR, 3.05; 95% CI, 1.27-7.41), esophageal varices (OR, 3.41; 95% CI, 1.47-7.91), and SRH (OR, 2.85; 95% CI, 1.36-5.97). For the corresponding risk index, the low-risk group (score of 0) had a risk of 5%, the intermediate-risk group (score of 1) had a risk of 20%, and the high-risk group (score ≥2) had a risk of 47%. In validation, the C statistics for both models declined by approximately 0.10.